The notion of a large, ideologically-centered "moderate middle" of American voters has long been a popular narrative in political discourse. However, a growing body of research suggests this image is more myth than reality. According to the latest analysis from Strength In Numbers, the majority of self-identified "moderates" are actually non-ideological and hold a diverse range of political views that often defy simple left-right categorization.
Beyond the Left-Right Spectrum
The data paints a more nuanced picture of the American electorate. As FiveThirtyEight's Lee Drutman has reported, independent and "moderate" voters span the full ideological spectrum, with many holding a mix of liberal and conservative positions. This challenges the notion of a cohesive "moderate" voting bloc waiting to be won over by centrist candidates.
"What this really means is that there is no simple policy solution that will appeal to all so-called 'moderate' or 'independent' voters," explains Strength In Numbers' G. Elliott Morris. "They are a diverse group with a wide range of views, not a monolithic voting bloc."
Implications for 2024 and Beyond
The bigger picture here is that campaigns and political strategists need to move beyond outdated stereotypes about the "center" of American politics. As The Washington Post recently reported, courting moderate voters may not be the silver bullet that many believe it to be.
Instead, the path to victory in 2024 and future elections may lie in energizing the party's base, appealing to a diverse range of issue-driven voters, and moving the Overton window of acceptable political discourse - rather than trying to stake out a mythical "middle ground."